The evolution of mobile connectivity since the launch of the first 1G network in Japan in 1979 has been measured by large leaps in capacity, capabilities—and the technology that enables them. The first 1G network was built exclusively to carry voice calls. 2G added text messaging in 1991. 3G was the first to deliver true internet access and email in 2001. 4G’s adoption of orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM), an advanced air interface capable of applying a range of modulation and coding schemes based on signal quality, brought HD video, streaming and IoT applications in 2009. And we are all familiar with the mobile broadband, low latency and mass IoT support and—now—mobile AI of 5G, first launched South Korea in 2019.
Each G brought significant technology, equipment and site architecture upgrades. 2G required the deployment of new radios and required inclusion of space and/or polarization diversity to improve link performance. 3G required further radio improvements, multiband antennas and tower-mounted amplifiers and RF conditioning to provide the higher-order sectorization for greater capacity and enhanced uplink performance. 4G’s site changes moved radios to the top of the tower and connected to the ground-level baseband units via fiber, and called for 4T4R antennas and higher power levels. 5G’s dependence on even higher power levels and MIMO led to more active antennas to support upper midband time-division duplexed (TDD) spectrum.
At each step, sites became more complex and tower tops became more heavily loaded, requiring reinforcement—an expensive proposition for mobile network operators (MNOs) as each new G forced capital-intensive upgrades and lower ROI in an increasingly commoditized marketplace.
After 45 years of this decade-long “leapfrog” cadence, signs now suggest a downshift into a more incremental kind of evolution. This approach will define the way MNOs upgrade networks in 2025 and beyond. The trends I’m seeing in the industry favor long-term evolution—ironically, the name once applied (LTE) to the bridge between 3G and 4G.
MNOs are focusing on macro network efficiency, sustainability and standardization to drive more utility from existing infrastructure. The reasons are not exclusively economic; other factors are driving scrutiny on site efficiency. For example, sustainability goals are now a central pillar in MNO mission statements, and in many parts of the world, regulatory governance over such matters as power consumption, component content, materials sourcing and other factors are driving policy. Simply replacing thousands of tons of antennas and other hardware in the upgrade cycle is becoming harder to justify.
MNOs are focusing on macro network infrastructure first because that’s where the greatest impact can be realized, both in terms of the network’s performance and its efficiency. That is also where MNOs can best showcase the utility and performance of their 5G deployments and introduce AI-driven capabilities that can improve network performance and efficiency at scale. Plus, macro sites are critical to the successful monetization of ancillary services such as fixed wireless access, which for many replaces residential broadband service, and represents a highly lucrative revenue stream for MNOs who have the assets to provide it.
Yet many of the old challenges remain. To leverage the extra capacity of newly-available spectrum, new or modified antennas are required, increasing weight and wind loads. Added equipment increases power demand, and zoning can limit the size or appearance of a site. While there remains a role for small cells to fill key coverage gaps in high-density areas, the ROI on such deployments lags that of the macro network. DAS solutions are an increasingly efficient alternative for covering indoor and mixed indoor/outdoor spaces, deployed either by the MNO or—even more economically—by a neutral host provider.
To get more productivity from their sites, MNOs will increasingly adopt a holistic approach that integrates multiple technologies to increase per-site efficiency, improve the standardization of site builds and support sustainability goals. Here are a few key solutions for 2025:
All these technologies are in the marketplace today, but I believe that 2025 will see them increase in importance in wireless networks worldwide. Because many of these solutions are retrofittable, we can expect to see them more often on existing sites as well as on new ones; and as they proliferate across the largest networks, we may even see fewer towers needed in spite of rising demand. For now, the G cycle is on the shelf and 6G is not expected to arrive until roughly 2030.
I’m excited to see such a mature approach gaining traction in an industry so long dominated by chasing the next big thing. Today, we are wiser and more prudent—and we realize that quiet, incremental progress can be just as important as fanfare-filled revolution to MNOs, subscribers and even the planet itself.